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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLINICAL AND MEDICAL CASES (ISSN:2517-7346)

Decision-Making under Uncertain Conditions: The Internist, as a Director of the Diagnostic/Therapeutic Pathway in Grey Zones

Daniela Tirotta1 * , Vittorio Durante1

1 Department of Internal Medicine, Cervesi Hospital (AUSL Romagna), Cattolica, Italy

CitationCitation COPIED

Tirotta D, Durante V. Decision-making under uncertain conditions: the internist, as a director of the diagnostic/therapeutic pathway in grey zones. Int J Clin Med Cases. 2018 Jan;1(1):101

© 2018 Tirotta D, et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 international License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Abstract

The internists should utilize both their clinic experience and medical literature’s evidences, mediating with organizational context, patients’ opinion and ethics. However, none of these components may be sufficient.

In several medical sectors, we may find many and extensive grey zones in which a diagnostic intervention’s effectiveness and/or its alternatives are uncertain.

This cannot lead to the decision-making process’s paralysis, because the evidence-based medicine requires to base any clinical decision on “the best available evidences” and not on “the best possible evidences.”

Clinicians should be able to extrapolate the prevailing question structuring from patients’ problem (PICO: problem, intervention, confront, outcome); identify the best available evidence and synthesize it; perform critical evaluation and information transfer (critical appraisal); in clinical efficiency, evaluate any action options. 

Keywords

Hospitalist; Internal Medicine; Clinical Error; Complexity

In general, medicine is considered as an inexact science for three main reasons:

Failure rate and uncertainty are secondary to clinical error (being it cognitive or system flaws-related: clinical risk)

Statistician William Deming showed how reduced is the acceptable failure rate in several major business sectors “If we had to tolerate living with a level of efficiency equal to 99.9 % we would have two dangerous landings a day, only in the O’Hare airport in Chicago. Every hour there would be 16.000 failed correspondence addresses, and 32.000 bank cheques withdrawn from a wrong bank account.”

In comparison, medical practice exhibits a remarkable anomaly. If the error extent is underestimated, the poor understanding of its nature is alarming as well.

In a recent study, physicians attributed the main failure rate to undersized staff combined with work overload while they did not mention cognitive causes. However, several studies show that the 1/6 of medical errors occurs synthetisizing available informations or deciding to act according to these [1,2].

Failure rate is inherent in diagnostic process itself, which is highly probabilistic

For example, for a proper diagnosis, diagnostic tests are not enough, because they seldom give conclusive results. Tests sensibility and specificity are inherent characteristics, which are usually provided by test manufacturers, or can be found in the literature. They determine also [3]:

a. Diagnosis variability: positive or negative predictive value is influenced by disease prevalence.

b. Biological variability of signs and symptoms’ occurrence: Vital signs (blood pressure and heart rate) may vary on a daily basis and independently of other factors (position, diet, stress, physical activity etc.) In addition, many measurements, including those resulting from echocardiograms (for example, ejection fraction), are variable as well.

c. Cultural and scientific position: As to continuous measurements, such as sow blood pressure, body mass, cholesterol or glucose tolerance, which cannot be expressed by “positive-negative” dichotomy, the identification of a pathological threshold is arbitrary (as it changes with new scientific data, industrial interests, economic sustainability).

d. Complex clinic judgment: Just as happens in any other field, even in the medical area the same event can be interpreted in different ways, by different observers and at different times.

e. Economic elements introduction in health management: with secondary waste concepts (resources use, which does not change the results related to: quantity or underutilization, quality: failed exclusion despite procedures of unproven effectiveness), saving: less resources use (amount of resources used) and cheapness: proper use of resources (quality/quantity of resources used) [3,4].

Failure rate is related to lack of evidences and grey zones presence 

A recent perspective article published in the New England Journal of Medicine points out that one crucial issue may be the perception? that health care is a twofold world in which interventions are either effective or ineffective, appropriate or inappropriate. Actually, there are large grey zones in which interventions are neither clearly effective nor ineffective —where benefits are unknown or uncertain and values may depend on patients’ preferences and available alternatives.

Moreover, although in principle guidelines focus on “appropriateness,” we should underline that appropriate care is not the same as necessary care. Many areas of medicine have recently undergone near continuous innovation process (imaging, cardiology, oncology, and orthopedics), which involved a rapid cost growth. Unfortunately, new tools “appropriate” use mostly occurs in grey zones where, although a procedure is unlikely to be harmful, its benefits may be modest or unproven [5].

As hospitalists, internists should utilize both their clinic experience and medical literature’s “evidences”, mediating with organizational context, patients’ opinion and ethics. However, none of these components may be sufficient.

In several medical sectors, we may find many and extensive grey zones in which a diagnostic intervention’s effectiveness and/or its alternatives are uncertain.

This cannot lead to the decision-making process’s paralysis, because the evidence-based medicine requires to base any clinical decision on “the best available evidences” and not on “the best possible evidences.”

Clinicians should be able to:

  1.  Extrapolate the prevailing question structuring from patients’ problem (PICO: problem, intervention, confront, outcome)
  2. Identify the best available evidence and synthesize it.
  3. Perform critical evaluation and information transfer (critical appraisal).
  4. In clinical efficiency, evaluate any action options: internists should always wonder whether these will produce:

- More positive than negative effects (efficacy)

- Proper functioning in usual clinical practices circumstances (effectiveness)

- Benefits in relation to the resources used (efficiency), and

- Potential risks.

As an example, we will report some cases related to internists’ clinical decision-making process in the grey zones.

Case 1: Therapeutic decision for a usual pathology, but with an unusual presentation

Clinical case: A 55-year-old man has come to our ultrasound outpatient department because of hematuria. Abdominal ultrasound showed two, bilateral, hypoechoic and non -homogeneous large renal masses (right: 10 cm, left: 7 cm, respectively).

Laboratory tests showed that creatinine and glomerular filtration rate were still within acceptable limits (creatinine: 1.2; glomerular filtration rate: GFR 60 ml/min).

The patient underwent tomographic evaluation of his illness along with urological assessment: the urologist gave no indications for the chirurgical approach, but suggested anti-tyrosine kinase therapy.

Background: The diagnosed pathology (Renal Cell Carcinoma: RCC bilateral synchronous) is quite unusual.

Do we have necessary evidences for a therapeutic procedure? Is the decision not to perform surgery secondary to cognitive bias (diagnostic-therapeutic inertia/ omission bias)?

Clinical problem (PICO): In a patient with massive renal synchronous neoplasia (RCC), is medical therapy, compared to surgical therapy, the only way to improve survival?

Best available evidence identification: Nephrectomy is usually recommended as a first step in RCC. However, since the observed pathology (massive renal synchronous neoplasia) is unusual, routinary recommendations cannot apply. Medline Literature’s extensive research features only observational studies, retrospective and international registers. It emerges that the extent of the disease has no significant influence on the decision to perform surgery. Patients with estimated survival time equal to < 12 mo or 4 further IMDC (International Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma Database Consortium) prognostic factors may not benefit from nephrectomy whereas all other patients do [6-8].

Internist - Patient communication: After being informed on risks (especially, the probable, imminent necessity for a dialysis approach) and benefits (complete mass removal), the patient opted for a radical surgery approach.

Evolution: Considering patient’s young age, good performance status, medical history and will, the internist asked for a second opinion in another Medical Center with a high number of relevant clinical cases(as recommended in case of unusual diseases), where the man underwent radical (right side) and partial (left side) nephrectomy. One year later, he is still asymptomatic with good GFR.

Conclusion

Appropriateness is commonly understood as “the level of assistance really necessary to the patient, for so it can become appropriate to the best and newest available scientific evidences.”

Any “appropriate” decision complies with the six right things’ rule: the right medication, for the right individual, in the right moment, from a right professional, in the right dose, with the right documentation. Actions’ quality needs to be considered in relation both to objectives and execution mode [20].

From the examined cases we clearly infer that medicine is a complex system. The internists’ cultural background can be a helpful guide in grey zones and beyond, by mediating six fundamental points of view: the patient, the doctor, the evidences, the nonevidences, the organizational/social/economic context and the inter professional cooperation (Figure 1).


Figure 1: Complexity of medicine and role of the internist

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